Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
07. 28. 18:40 · loanDepot Park
Away Aaron Nola vs Home Sandy Alcantara
| Line score | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | |||
| Miami Marlins |
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Predicted winnerMiami Marlins
65%
Projected scorePhiladelphia Phillies 3 : 6 Miami Marlins
Key factors
- The home team, Miami Marlins, shows a solid recent form with a 6-4 record in their last 10 games, including an 8-7 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies in their most recent matchup.
- Marlins' starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara has a stable performance this season with a 10-6 W-L record, a 4.01 ERA, and 110 strikeouts over 143.2 innings.
- Phillies' starting pitcher Aaron Nola has struggled in 2026 with a 3-8 W-L record and a high 5.82 ERA, showing instability in recent outings, including allowing 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings in his last start.
- Alcantara has historically performed well against the Phillies at loanDepot Park, holding a career 3.23 ERA against them at home.
- While key Phillies hitters have shown success against Alcantara in the past, the team's recent offensive line, batting .247 with 13 home runs in the last 10 games, might struggle to consistently score against a pitcher who has traditionally been tough at home.
Briefing
Tonight's game analysis suggests the home team, Miami Marlins, with Sandy Alcantara on the mound, holds an advantageous position against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Marlins have been in good form recently, boasting a 6-4 record in their last 10 games, and are coming off an exhilarating 8-7 comeback victory against the Phillies yesterday. Starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara has been a consistent performer this season with a 10-6 W-L record, a 4.01 ERA, and a 1.23 WHIP. Notably, he has demonstrated strong career numbers against the Phillies at his home ballpark, loanDepot Park, with a 3.23 ERA.
Conversely, Phillies' starting pitcher Aaron Nola has had a challenging season, holding a 3-8 W-L record and a high 5.82 ERA, with recent outings reflecting this struggle. Facing a Marlins lineup backed by Alcantara's strong home performance will be a significant challenge for Nola. While the Phillies' offense has been decent in their last 10 games, batting .247 with 13 home runs, and some key hitters like Bryce Harper (.326 AVG, 3 HR) and Alec Bohm (.371 AVG) have had personal success against Alcantara, translating this into consistent team runs remains questionable. Furthermore, loanDepot Park's park factor, with a home run factor of 86, tends to suppress offense, which could further benefit the Marlins' pitching.