Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees

Confirmed lineup

Key factors

• New York Yankees starter Gerrit Cole has a strong career record against the Pittsburgh Pirates, with a 1-0 record and a 2.45 ERA in 2 appearances.
• Pittsburgh Pirates starter Mitch Keller has struggled significantly against the New York Yankees in his career, holding an 0-2 record with a 10.24 ERA in 2 appearances.
• The New York Yankees hold a superior season record of 56-44 (.560 winning percentage) compared to the Pittsburgh Pirates' 52-49 (.515 winning percentage).
• Yankee Stadium is considered a slightly hitter-friendly park, with a Statcast park factor of 102 for runs from 2024-2026.
• The New York Yankees maintain consistent offensive production, averaging 4.8 runs per game this season.

Briefing

Today's game marks the second matchup of the season between the New York Yankees and the Pittsburgh Pirates, and it's the first game of a doubleheader at Yankee Stadium. The main point of interest in this contest is undoubtedly the starting pitcher matchup. Home team Yankees' starter Gerrit Cole holds a 3-5 record with a 3.93 ERA this season, but he has historically performed strongly against the Pirates with a career 1-0 record and a low 2.45 ERA in 2 appearances. While he's shown some inconsistency recently with a 1-4 record and a 5.33 ERA in his last five starts, his previous outing against the Dodgers, where he gave up just two runs over six innings, suggests a return to form.

For the visiting Pirates, starter Mitch Keller comes into this game with a 6-7 record and a 5.14 ERA, appearing more vulnerable than Cole. Notably, Keller has struggled against the Yankees throughout his career, posting an 0-2 record with a high 10.24 ERA in two appearances. His most recent outing was a relief appearance on July 9 against the Braves, where he allowed three earned runs in three innings. Prior to that, he had a volatile stretch with an 8.70 ERA over six starts. Although the Pirates' offense averages 5.3 runs per game, higher than the Yankees' 4.8 runs, considering the strengths and weaknesses of the opposing starters, Keller's mound performance is expected to be under more pressure.

Overall, Gerrit Cole's favorable head-to-head record and Mitch Keller's historical struggles against the Yankees are key factors that will likely dictate the flow of this game. The Yankees also hold a superior season record (56-44) over the Pirates (52-49), indicating an overall stronger team. Yankee Stadium's slightly hitter-friendly characteristics (Run park factor of 102) could influence both offenses, but given Keller's command issues and the Yankees' power-hitting tendencies, it might favor the home team more. Based on pitching and overall team strength, the Yankees are deemed more likely to secure a victory in this contest.