Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected lineup

Key factors

• Home starter Paul Skenes holds a 3.58 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in the 2026 season and has historically performed well against Milwaukee with a career 2.89 ERA.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates hold a dominant 4-1 head-to-head record against the Milwaukee Brewers this season.
• The Milwaukee Brewers boast a strong team record of 59-36 (0.621 winning percentage), ranking 2nd in the league, and are currently in good form with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games.
• Away starter Robert Gasser has posted a 4.15 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in the 2026 season, showing less stability compared to Skenes.
• Pittsburgh is impacted by key offensive injuries to Oneil Cruz (fractured left hand), Spencer Horwitz (left hamstring strain), and Endy Rodríguez (left glute strain), which may affect their lineup's cohesion.

Briefing

Today's game at PNC Park between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers is anticipated to be a closely contested battle. The Brewers are having an excellent season with a 59-36 record, placing them 2nd in the league, and they exhibit strong performance in both offense and defense, averaging 5.1 runs scored and 3.7 runs allowed per game. The Pirates, despite a 49-47 record, hold a dominant 4-1 head-to-head advantage over the Brewers this season, which bodes well for their home game.

On the mound, Paul Skenes will start for the Pirates. Skenes has been performing like an ace in the 2026 season, with a 7-8 record, a 3.58 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and 123 strikeouts in 19 appearances. Notably, he has shown strong performances against the Brewers throughout his career, holding an impressive 2.89 ERA in 5 career appearances. Countering him for the Brewers is Robert Gasser, who has a 2-3 record with a 4.15 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 8 starts this season, a somewhat less stable performance compared to Skenes. The Pirates' offense, even with injuries, features key hitters like Brandon Lowe (21 HR, 64 RBI) and Bryan Reynolds (14 HR, 58 RBI) who are expected to contribute.

However, the Pirates are dealing with significant offensive injuries, including Oneil Cruz (fractured left hand) and Spencer Horwitz (left hamstring strain), which could impact their lineup's overall power. PNC Park generally exhibits neutral characteristics, with a slight suppression of home runs (HR factor 96) but a tendency to favor doubles (2B factor 121), suggesting the potential for extra-base hits. Today's weather in Pittsburgh is warm and humid, around 27°C (81.9°F) with light winds (5.8 mph), creating favorable conditions for hitting. Bullpen availability is expected to be normal for both teams. While the Brewers have a superior overall team record, Skenes' strong pitching and the Pirates' impressive season series record against Milwaukee lead to a narrow prediction in favor of the home team.