St.Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets
06. 09. 19:10 · 시티 필드
Away Dustin May vs Home Freddy Peralta
| Line score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St.Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
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Predicted winnerNew York Mets
57%
Projected scoreSt.Louis Cardinals 3 : 4 New York Mets
Key factors
- Mets' starting pitcher Freddy Peralta shows a more stable season performance with a 3.63 ERA and 9.25 K/9, compared to Cardinals' Dustin May (4.59 ERA, 8.16 K/9).
- Citi Field, the game venue, is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in MLB, with an overall park factor of 73.7 in 2024, limiting overall scoring opportunities.
- The Mets' bullpen boasts a 3.24 team ERA, ranking 10th in the league, demonstrating superior stability over the Cardinals' bullpen (4.09 ERA, 22nd in the league).
- The Cardinals are on a recent hot streak, winning 6 of their last 9 games, while the Mets have shown a more inconsistent form with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games.
- The Cardinals hold a 2-1 head-to-head advantage over the Mets in their three matchups this season.
Briefing
Today's game at Citi Field, home of the New York Mets, promises to be a pivotal matchup for both teams. The Mets send Freddy Peralta to the mound. Peralta has had a solid season with a 4-4 record, a 3.63 ERA, and a 9.25 K/9 across 13 starts. Notably, he pitched well against the Cardinals on April 1st, allowing just 1 run over 5.1 innings. Countering for the Cardinals is Dustin May. May holds a 3-6 record with a 4.59 ERA through 12 starts. However, his 3.35 FIP suggests that his underlying performance has been better than his ERA indicates, hinting at potential positive regression.
Citi Field is rated as one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in MLB for 2024, with an overall park factor of 73.7, which will likely suppress offensive output for both lineups. The Mets' offense features strong hitters such as Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, and Marcus Semien. Left-handed batters like Carson Benge, Juan Soto, and Jared Young could particularly thrive against the right-handed May. The Cardinals' offense is led by Jordan Walker, who boasts a .303 batting average and 16 home runs, but their full lineup for today's game has not yet been announced.
In the bullpen, the Mets hold a significant advantage, ranking 10th in the league with a 3.24 team ERA, compared to the Cardinals' 4.09 ERA (22nd in the league). This could be crucial for the Mets in holding a late-game lead. However, the Cardinals come into this series on a hot streak, winning 6 of their last 9 games, and have a 2-1 season series advantage against the Mets. Overall, the Mets are slightly favored due to their starting pitching, bullpen strength, and home-field advantage. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of Citi Field, a low-scoring, tightly contested game is expected.